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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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